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Powell and JOLTS Don’t Materially Change Rate Path

STIR
  • After initially only a marginal dip on Chair Powell’s Sintra comments, Fed Funds implied saw a modest lift on the stronger than expected JOLTS job openings which has already been trimmed slightly.
  • End-2024 rates are ~0.5bp higher than before Powell took the stage (+1bp on net post-JOLTS) but firmly within recent ranges having pulled lower in the second half of last week on dovish implications from jobless claims and GDP/PCE data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 2.5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 27bp Nov, 47bp Dec and 60bp Jan.
  • Still to come ahead, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee speaks from Sintra again this time to CNBC at 1100ET. Speaking on BBG TV earlier today, he said policymakers should cut interest rates if US inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target in a BBG TV interview in Sintra. Bloomberg wrote he feels “we are on a path to 2%” inflation and “if you just hold the rates where they are while inflation comes down, you are tightening — so you should do that by decision, not by default.”

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