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Powell Doesn't Think Projection Qualifies As Recessionary

FED
  • Q: Why wouldn't your projection be considered recessionary?
  • A: I don't think it would qualify as a recession because you've got positive growth.. it's well below trend. In that condition, labor market conditions are softening a bit... many analysts believe the natural rate of unemployment is elevated at this moment so it's not clear the forecasts and inflation are above the NAIRU. But that 4.7% is still a strong labor market... the labor market can come back into balance with relatively modest increases in unemployment, that's what the forecast reflects.

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