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Powell Goes Into More Detail on 50bps vs. 75bps Hike

FED
  • A: 75bp increase is not something the committee is actively considering. There is a broad sense on the Committee that additional 50bp increases should be on the table for the next couple of meetings. We will make the decisions at the meetings of course. We will be paying close attention to the incoming data and evolving outlook as well as financial conditions, and communicating what our expectations are as they evolve.
  • The test is econ / financial conditions evolving in line with expectations: inflation flattening out. We want to know more than just some evidence. We want to feel like we are making some progress there. It's a very difficult environment to try to give forward guidance 60, 90 days in advance, so many things that can happen. We're leaving ourselves room to look at the data and make the decision when we get there.
  • One month's reading doesn't tell us much, we want to see evidence that inflation is moving in a direction that gives us more comfort. But again it's not like we would stop, we would just go back to 25bp increases. Will be a judgment call when these meetings arrive.
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