MNI BRIEF: China June CPI Hits Three Month Low

RBNZ MPC SAYS OCR "HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CPI"

MNI: RBNZ LEAVES OCR AT 5.5%

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Weds; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1342 Weds; -0.53% Y/Y

Services Drive Downside Surprise in CPI-ATE

MNI: NORWAY JUN CORE CPI +0.2% M/M, +3.4% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY JUN CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.6% Y/Y

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Powell In The Spotlight – Reinforcing Patience, Watching Potential QT Clues

FED
  • The text for Chair Powell’s testimony is to be released at an unknown time ahead of his 1000ET appearance in front of the House, although as we noted yesterday, prior House appearances have recently seen a 0830ET text publication.
  • Powell used the Jan 31 FOMC press conference to set a high bar for a March cut. See a recap here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59780/FedReviewJan2024.pdf
  • Payrolls and CPI have since come in notably stronger than expected, albeit for January with seasonality likely at least partly distorting the underlying trend.
  • Subsequent Fedspeak has for the most part called for patience before starting rate cuts in a careful manner, whilst some including NY Fed’s Williams have looked to maintain flexibility by rejecting the need to move at end-quarter meetings with the SEP.
  • This patience was emphasized in last week’s Monetary Policy Report “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
  • With Powell expected to echo this sentiment, greater attention could be on any insights ahead of the upcoming QT discussion. Powell at the Jan presser on QT tapering: "we had some discussion of the balance sheet" at this meeting - as expected - though Powell cast doubt on a QT taper announcement as soon as March and/or initiation soon thereafter ("We are planning to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues at our next meeting in March.")
  • Dallas Fed’s Logan, viewed in high regard on QT discussions, last week reiterated her desire for slowing the pace of QT as ON RRP balances declined near zero in order to ensure that ample reserves remained in the system to effectively and efficiently manage the policy rate under the floor system. As Deutsche Bank write, this is “an operating regime that some in Congress routinely voice their criticisms at the semi-annual monetary policy testimonies.”
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.