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Powell On Inflation and Liftoff Criteria

FED
  • On inflation: notes "supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy" contributing to elevated inflation, "in particular bottlenecks and supply constraints limiting how quickly production can respond to higher demand in near term...these problems have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated."* Says that while the drivers of higher inflation have been "predominantly" connected to pandemic dislocations, it's "now spread to a broader range of goods and services", though "wage growth not a major contributor" thus far.
  • Goes through liftoff criteria and the Dots (with a handy slide), notes that their their updated assessement, progress has been made toward forward guidance criteria. "With inflation having exceeded 2%, the committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this range until market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessment of maximum employment. All FOMC participants forecast this remaining test will be met next year."* But of course caveats: "Of course these projections do not represent a committee decision or plan, and no one knows with any certainly where the economy will be a year or more from now".
Energy BulletsCommoditiesFOMC Calendar Market News
Energy BulletsCommoditiesFOMC Calendar Market News

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