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Powell On The "Great Resignation" and Changing Labor Dynamics

FED

Q re the "great resignation" - is the Fed fighting the last war, with labor dynamics changing post-Covid, full employment not what it was before?

  • A: People "are quitting their jobs in all-time-high numbers, but in many cases going back into employment and getting higher wages. A lot of the higher wages you are seeing are for job switchers rather than incumbents. That is a sign of a strong labor market, as opposed to people just quitting. There are significant numbers of retirements, and we will just have to see what that means."
  • "You won't know what can happen with labor force participation in advance - y"ou are just going to have to give it some time...we expect labor force participation to pick up. We don't know the pace at which it will do so.... we're in a different world now."
  • "One thing I hope we will learn in the near term is, once the Delta variant really does decline, what is going to happen to employment? Are we going to start to see significant increases in jobs again over the winter? Last 3/6/9 month avg job creation between 550-600k.....if we get back on that path, then we would be making good progress".
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