POWER: Average Nordic Spot for Sept Below Market Expectations

The average Nordic system-wide price for September is below the Nordic September close of €22.20/MWh on 30 August amid strong onshore wind in Norway and higher hydro stocks. However, cooler temperatures and an unplanned outage at the 890MW OL2 nuclear unit may push prices higher towards the end of Sept.

• The Nordic system-wide price has averaged €16.54/MWh over 1-11 September.
• Onshore wind output in Norway has averaged around 1.34GW over 1-9 September, higher than theseasonal norm over the same period and above 1.07GW averaged over 1-9 August.
• Nordic hydropower reserves moved up at a slower speed in week 35 on the week, with stocks at 80.1% of capacity, or 101.73TWh – the first time this year –, while stocks remained at a surplus for the same week in 2023.
• Norwegian power demand has also been falling steadily since peaking towards the end of August, with Swedish and Finnish consumption falling over 3-7 September.
• But Nordic nuclear availability was at 57%, down from 62% on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
• Finland’s 890MW OL2 nuclear reactor is still anticipated to be offline until 29 September “at the earliest”, with the investigation currently ongoing, TVO said.
• And Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to drop to around 13.7-15.8C over 12-16 September from 18.3C forecasts for 9 September – likely lifting demand.