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POWER: End of Day Summary: FR-DE Nov Discount Widens to Monthly High

POWER

The French-German Nov discount widened for the third straight session, reaching its widest this month. German gains, supported by rising TTF, emissions, and low wind forecasts, which is lifting the week-ahead and adding additional support to front-month prices, while stable nuclear output and stronger wind in France have kept French gains subdued.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 up 4.1% at 44.1 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power NOV 24 up 2.9% at 80.85 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 3.2% at 95.84 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 2.8% at 66.73 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 2.1% at 42.25 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal NOV 24 up 2% at 120.2 USD/MT
  • The French-German Nov 24 discount is at €14.99/MWh at the time of writing, narrowing slightly from €14.35/MWh in the previous session.
  • TTF front-month stays strong, hitting its highest since August's spike, driven by reduced Norwegian capacity and Middle East tensions, despite mild weather this week. Resistance is near €42.60/MWh, with support at €39.61/MWh.
  • EU ETS Dec24 extends Wednesday’s rally, boosted by cooler weather forecasts heading into next week, potential gas-to-coal switching, and rising gas and coal prices. Forecasts for low wind in major markets like Germany are adding further upward pressure.
  • EdF will extend the outage at its 905MW Chinon 2 reactor to 30 Oct from 28 Oct.
  • Eni will invest €2bn over the next five years to decarbonise its Versalis chemical unit in Italy to reduce emissions by 1 mn/t of CO2e.
  • Nordic front-month power futures have extended gains amid uncertainty over the return of Sweden’s Forsmark 2 nuclear plant following an unplanned outage on Thursday. The unit is expected to return at 23:59 CET on 24 Oct.
  • Nordic grid companies have decided to keep the automatic frequency recovery reserve maintenance hours unchanged for Nov, aiming to maintain a reserve capacity of 200–400MW across the region.
  • Attractive renewable auction strike prices in Ireland are drawing developers, with potential solar project returns of 13.4% and a 4.5-year payback period. In October, new onshore wind additions reached 106MW, with an estimated total of 339MW expected by year-end.
  • EDP is planning to install a new 122MW solar PV plant in Spain.
  • Poland’s front-month power contract continued to climb from the previous session on 24 Oct to settle just below its price on 12 Sept, with the contract supported by sharp gains in EU ETS and European coal
  • The world is currently on track for a temperature rise of 3.1C before the end of the century due to a lack of ambition and climate action by countries over the past three years.
  • European power demand growth could end up below government expectations by 2030 as sluggish economic growth is hindering the switch to cleaner energies.
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The French-German Nov discount widened for the third straight session, reaching its widest this month. German gains, supported by rising TTF, emissions, and low wind forecasts, which is lifting the week-ahead and adding additional support to front-month prices, while stable nuclear output and stronger wind in France have kept French gains subdued.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 up 4.1% at 44.1 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power NOV 24 up 2.9% at 80.85 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 3.2% at 95.84 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 2.8% at 66.73 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 2.1% at 42.25 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal NOV 24 up 2% at 120.2 USD/MT
  • The French-German Nov 24 discount is at €14.99/MWh at the time of writing, narrowing slightly from €14.35/MWh in the previous session.
  • TTF front-month stays strong, hitting its highest since August's spike, driven by reduced Norwegian capacity and Middle East tensions, despite mild weather this week. Resistance is near €42.60/MWh, with support at €39.61/MWh.
  • EU ETS Dec24 extends Wednesday’s rally, boosted by cooler weather forecasts heading into next week, potential gas-to-coal switching, and rising gas and coal prices. Forecasts for low wind in major markets like Germany are adding further upward pressure.
  • EdF will extend the outage at its 905MW Chinon 2 reactor to 30 Oct from 28 Oct.
  • Eni will invest €2bn over the next five years to decarbonise its Versalis chemical unit in Italy to reduce emissions by 1 mn/t of CO2e.
  • Nordic front-month power futures have extended gains amid uncertainty over the return of Sweden’s Forsmark 2 nuclear plant following an unplanned outage on Thursday. The unit is expected to return at 23:59 CET on 24 Oct.
  • Nordic grid companies have decided to keep the automatic frequency recovery reserve maintenance hours unchanged for Nov, aiming to maintain a reserve capacity of 200–400MW across the region.
  • Attractive renewable auction strike prices in Ireland are drawing developers, with potential solar project returns of 13.4% and a 4.5-year payback period. In October, new onshore wind additions reached 106MW, with an estimated total of 339MW expected by year-end.
  • EDP is planning to install a new 122MW solar PV plant in Spain.
  • Poland’s front-month power contract continued to climb from the previous session on 24 Oct to settle just below its price on 12 Sept, with the contract supported by sharp gains in EU ETS and European coal
  • The world is currently on track for a temperature rise of 3.1C before the end of the century due to a lack of ambition and climate action by countries over the past three years.
  • European power demand growth could end up below government expectations by 2030 as sluggish economic growth is hindering the switch to cleaner energies.