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EMISSIONS: EU Carbon Price to Avg €80/t CO2e in 2025, €146/t CO2e 2030: BNEF

POWER
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European carbon prices are anticipated to average €65/t CO2e in 2024, as power demand is expected to be in line with 2023 amid sluggish industrial growth, with prices then rising to €80/t CO2e in 2025 and €146/t CO2e in 2030 according to a BNEF forecast.

  • Decarbonising the industrial sector will be crucial for balancing the market by the end of the fourth trading phase (2021-2030), alongside the continued expansion of renewables in the power sector, BNEF said.
  • And if the market were to stay as it currently exists into Phase 5 (2031-2040) prices could hit €194/t CO2e in 2035, the report showed.
  • Further emissions reduction could be seen in the cement and steel sectors at a €146/t CO2e price level in 2030, with CCS technology being profitable, the report added.
  • Additionally, the UK is mulling the possibility of linking to the EU carbon market, which would increase liquidity but raise the costs of the UK’s annual carbon bill, BNEF said.
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.8% at 65.85 EUR/MT
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.7% at 68.05 EUR/MT
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European carbon prices are anticipated to average €65/t CO2e in 2024, as power demand is expected to be in line with 2023 amid sluggish industrial growth, with prices then rising to €80/t CO2e in 2025 and €146/t CO2e in 2030 according to a BNEF forecast.

  • Decarbonising the industrial sector will be crucial for balancing the market by the end of the fourth trading phase (2021-2030), alongside the continued expansion of renewables in the power sector, BNEF said.
  • And if the market were to stay as it currently exists into Phase 5 (2031-2040) prices could hit €194/t CO2e in 2035, the report showed.
  • Further emissions reduction could be seen in the cement and steel sectors at a €146/t CO2e price level in 2030, with CCS technology being profitable, the report added.
  • Additionally, the UK is mulling the possibility of linking to the EU carbon market, which would increase liquidity but raise the costs of the UK’s annual carbon bill, BNEF said.
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.8% at 65.85 EUR/MT
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.7% at 68.05 EUR/MT