POWER: French, German Day-Ahead Diverge

The German and French day-ahead diverged, with France supported by warmer temperatures and extensions of nuclear works, while firm wind and solar output in Germany kept gains subdued.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €90.90/MWh from €99.59/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €69.20/MWh from €85.11/MWh.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €69.52/MWh from €69.11/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €56.85/MWh from €66.90/MWh.
• No negative hourly power prices were recorded in both countries, with Germany seeing prices as low as €1.18/MWh and France recording prices at €4.79/MWh.
• Combined German solar and wind output is expected at 18.76GW, or a 12% load factor on 27 August – remaining firm from a 13% load factor on 26 August – and will rise the next day to a 14% load factor – possibly weighing down power prices from the previous day.
• In contrast, combined French and solar wind output is expected at 6.60-6.16GW, or a 17% load factor over 27-28 August– which could keep France at a discount to Germany.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggests average temperatures will be above the 30-year norm of around 18C over 27 August – 4 September – reaching as high as 22.1C on 28 August.
• Nuclear availability was at 72% of capacity as of Monday morning, up from 71% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• However, EdF has extended the outage at its 910MW Gravelines 4 and Bugey 3 reactors to 31 August and 1 September, respectively.