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POWER: French-German Day-Ahead Diverge, Discount Narrows

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts diverged, with Germany falling amid forecasts for slightly higher wind output on the day, with power demand revised down, while lower wind and nuclear in France supported domestic prices.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €77.98/MWh from €88.89/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €48.57/MWh from €21.91/MWh on the previous day.
  • FR-DE discount was at €29.41/MWh from a €66.98/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • German wind is expected at 16.14GW, or a 25% load factor on 18 September and is expected to remain firm at a 26% load factor on 19 Sept – keeping weight on delivery costs. Wind on 23 Sept (Mon) will only be at a  11% load factor – opening the door to the possibility of much higher power prices amid rising demand and lower wind.
  • German power demand over 18-21 Sept has been revised down, with demand anticipated between 52.3-54.2GW over 18-20 Sept before dropping to 41.4-44.4GW over the weekend – likely weighing on costs.
  • Average temperature in Berlin is anticipated to be above the 30-year norm of around 13-14C throughout the 6–10-day forecasts at between 16-18C over 17-26 Sept. Max temps will be below 25C over the same period – likely keeping cooling demand limited.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at 7.64GW, or a 38% load factor on 18 Sept and will be at a 33% load factor on 19 Sept – which could keep FR-DE discount strong.
  • French nuclear availability dropped to 67% of capacity on Tuesday from 74% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF will stop production at its 910MW Bugey 2 reactor over 17- 18 Sept for 24Hrs, latest Remit data show.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 is expected to return on 21 September. 
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts diverged, with Germany falling amid forecasts for slightly higher wind output on the day, with power demand revised down, while lower wind and nuclear in France supported domestic prices.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €77.98/MWh from €88.89/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €48.57/MWh from €21.91/MWh on the previous day.
  • FR-DE discount was at €29.41/MWh from a €66.98/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • German wind is expected at 16.14GW, or a 25% load factor on 18 September and is expected to remain firm at a 26% load factor on 19 Sept – keeping weight on delivery costs. Wind on 23 Sept (Mon) will only be at a  11% load factor – opening the door to the possibility of much higher power prices amid rising demand and lower wind.
  • German power demand over 18-21 Sept has been revised down, with demand anticipated between 52.3-54.2GW over 18-20 Sept before dropping to 41.4-44.4GW over the weekend – likely weighing on costs.
  • Average temperature in Berlin is anticipated to be above the 30-year norm of around 13-14C throughout the 6–10-day forecasts at between 16-18C over 17-26 Sept. Max temps will be below 25C over the same period – likely keeping cooling demand limited.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at 7.64GW, or a 38% load factor on 18 Sept and will be at a 33% load factor on 19 Sept – which could keep FR-DE discount strong.
  • French nuclear availability dropped to 67% of capacity on Tuesday from 74% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF will stop production at its 910MW Bugey 2 reactor over 17- 18 Sept for 24Hrs, latest Remit data show.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 is expected to return on 21 September.