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POWER: French-German October Power Spread Narrows

POWER

The French-German October power base-load spread is narrowing today to €14.75/MWh amid more pronounced gains in the French market as forecasts suggest cooler weather which could support some early heating demand. 

  • The French-German October spread stood at a high of €15.65/MWh on 5 September this month.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in Paris will remain below the seasonal normal throughout the forecast period, with minimum temperatures to drop as low as 5.6C on 14 September.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to a maximum of 45.3GW to 53.4GW in the period to 18 September, RTE data showed.
  • While temperatures in Germany are also forecast to drop, French prices are more sensitive to temperature drops due to its electric heating system.
  • CWE front-month power futures received additional support today from EU natural gas prices amid forecasts for cooler weather and ongoing cuts to pipeline gas supplies from Norway and Algeria, while an outage at an Australian export plant and further Egyptian LNG buying are also adding support.
    • France Base Power OCT 24 up 2% at 68.95 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 1% at 83.7 EUR/MWh
    • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1.6% at 37.055 EUR/MWh
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