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POWER: French Oct Climbs From Two-Session Low

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French  October has climbed from its 2-session low in the previous session – tracking neighbouring EU power markets that are supported by TTF and emissions. However, the French hydro balance has been revised up on the day, with the anticipation of nuclear units returning potentially limiting further upside.

  • France Base Power OCT 24 up 3.8% at 57.91 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.8% at 63.33 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 3.4% at 34.2 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 73% as of Friday morning, up from 71% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 reactor is still expected to reconnect on 21 Sept, with the 915MW Cruas 1 and 905MW Chinon 3 both returning on 3 Oct.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised up throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with the balance ending at +4.89TWh on 4 Oct compared to +4.62TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures will drop sharply from 26 Sept – flipping below the norm – to be between 10.9-12.4C over 27-29 Sept compared to 15-17C over 24-26 Sept.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at 39.13GW on 21 Sept, down from 43.6GW on 20 Sept, with demand then picking up to 43.2GW on 23 Sept.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at a 54% load factor on  25 Sept – likely weighing on delivery costs and opening the door for possibly negative delivery hours. 
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French  October has climbed from its 2-session low in the previous session – tracking neighbouring EU power markets that are supported by TTF and emissions. However, the French hydro balance has been revised up on the day, with the anticipation of nuclear units returning potentially limiting further upside.

  • France Base Power OCT 24 up 3.8% at 57.91 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.8% at 63.33 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 3.4% at 34.2 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 73% as of Friday morning, up from 71% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 reactor is still expected to reconnect on 21 Sept, with the 915MW Cruas 1 and 905MW Chinon 3 both returning on 3 Oct.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised up throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with the balance ending at +4.89TWh on 4 Oct compared to +4.62TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures will drop sharply from 26 Sept – flipping below the norm – to be between 10.9-12.4C over 27-29 Sept compared to 15-17C over 24-26 Sept.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at 39.13GW on 21 Sept, down from 43.6GW on 20 Sept, with demand then picking up to 43.2GW on 23 Sept.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at a 54% load factor on  25 Sept – likely weighing on delivery costs and opening the door for possibly negative delivery hours.