POWER: French Spot to Fall Sharply

The French Epex Spot day ahead is likely to fall sharply for Saturday’s delivery with lower demand and wind output reaching load factors of up to 45%. Day-ahead prices moved in negative territory for four hours for Friday’s delivery. 

• France Base Power SEP 24 closed down 1.6% at 69.39 EUR/MWh on Thursday.
• France Power Qtr OCT 24 closed down 1.3% at 91.17 EUR/MWh on Thursday. 
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.8% at 72.14 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas SEP 24 up 1.1% at 36.985 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month has rebounded slightly since reaching a low of €36.17/MWh yesterday as the market erases the risk premium associated with Ukraine transit concerns but remains wary of tightening supplies during the coming three week Norway maintenance season.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised down at the start of the forecast period. Mean temps are forecast to be above the 30-year normal throughout the forecast period, except for this weekend and early next week. Max temps in Marseille are seen 32C in the next ten days. 
• In France, nuclear availability was stable at 71% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg. EdF is cutting nuclear output during some hours on Friday due to lower demand and high renewables output. 
• In France, wind output is forecast to further increase to 7.26GW during base load on Saturday, up from 6.63GW forecast for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 3.82GW on Saturday according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in France is forecast at 45.92GW on Saturday and at 43.67GW on Saturday. Sunday is forecast to be the coldest day in France since mid-July, weighing on demand.
• The IFA 2 Tourbe-Daedalus interconnector is offline in an unplanned outage until 24 Aug 22:59 CET.