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POWER: German Day Ahead Clears at Discount to France for Third Straight Session

POWER
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France and Germany’s day-ahead power prices both increased due to lower wind output and higher demand. However, Germany continued to trade at a discount to France for the third straight session, as stronger wind generation and a smaller rise in demand kept its price gains below those of France. Looking ahead, Germany is expected to see a further drop in wind on 27 Nov, while France is predicted to experience a sharp increase, potentially flipping France to a discount to Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €112.75/MWh from €55.01/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €114.24/MWh from €66.74/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €1.49/MWh premium from €11.73/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall on the day to 24.87GW on Tuesday – revised down by around 0.805GW – from 38.85GW on Monday. Looking ahead, wind is expected to fall further to 21.24GW the next day – which could support delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge up on the day to 60.12GW on Tuesday from 59.89GW on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then be at 60.24GW on 27 Nov – which could keep upward pressure on costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to also fall on the day at 4.57GW, or 23% load factor on Tuesday from 11.63GW, or a 58% load factor on Monday. Wind will then be at 8.94GW on 27 Nov – which could weigh down delivery prices from the previous session.
  • French power demand is also expected to rise on the day tomorrow to be at 56.56GW compared to 55.46GW estimated for today. Demand will then be at 57.38GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 80% of capacity as of Monday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, EdF will disconnect its 915MW St.Laurent 2 nuke over 25-26 November, latest Remit data show.
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France and Germany’s day-ahead power prices both increased due to lower wind output and higher demand. However, Germany continued to trade at a discount to France for the third straight session, as stronger wind generation and a smaller rise in demand kept its price gains below those of France. Looking ahead, Germany is expected to see a further drop in wind on 27 Nov, while France is predicted to experience a sharp increase, potentially flipping France to a discount to Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €112.75/MWh from €55.01/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €114.24/MWh from €66.74/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €1.49/MWh premium from €11.73/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall on the day to 24.87GW on Tuesday – revised down by around 0.805GW – from 38.85GW on Monday. Looking ahead, wind is expected to fall further to 21.24GW the next day – which could support delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge up on the day to 60.12GW on Tuesday from 59.89GW on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then be at 60.24GW on 27 Nov – which could keep upward pressure on costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to also fall on the day at 4.57GW, or 23% load factor on Tuesday from 11.63GW, or a 58% load factor on Monday. Wind will then be at 8.94GW on 27 Nov – which could weigh down delivery prices from the previous session.
  • French power demand is also expected to rise on the day tomorrow to be at 56.56GW compared to 55.46GW estimated for today. Demand will then be at 57.38GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 80% of capacity as of Monday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, EdF will disconnect its 915MW St.Laurent 2 nuke over 25-26 November, latest Remit data show.