POWER: German Day Ahead Collapses, Flips to Discount

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts declined, with Germany leading losses as forecasts for high wind pushed prices to a several-day low to flip to a discount to France, while stable wind and lower solar, and nuclear in France kept losses limited.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €64.42/MWh from €125.84/MWh on the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €86.13/MWh from €104.69/MWh on the previous day.
• The German day-ahead flipped to a €21.71/MWh discount from a €21.15/MWh premium in the previous session.
• This is the first time that Germany has been at a discount to France since 11 August – which was on a Sunday.
• German wind is expected at just 19.76GW, or a 31% load factor on 5 September - up by around 1.3GW on the day – and will remain firm the next day at a 29% load factor – which could keep weight on delivery costs.
• German power demand over 5-6 September has been revised up by between 230-460GWh on the day. Demand is forecasted at 55.1GW on 5 September, up from 54.3GW forecast for today, with demand estimated to fall to 54GW on 6 September.
• In France, wind forecast point to output at 2.31GW, or a 12% load factor on 5 September, falling to an 11% load factor the next day, which could keep France at a premium to Germany and support power prices.
• And Solar PV output is forecast to edge lower to 4.81GW during peak load, down from 4.99GW forecast for Wednesday, according to SpotRenewables.
• Nuclear availability in France declined to 71% as of Wednesday morning, down from 73% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.