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POWER: German Day-Ahead Drops from High, FR-DE Discount Halves

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead baseload both declined, with Germany dropping sharply from its two-week high in the previous session amid higher wind forecasts on the day, with France remaining relatively unchanged as domestic wind generation is expected to remain firm.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €91.77MWh from €121.36/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €54.14/MWh from €54.82/MWh on the previous day.
  • FR-DE discount was at €37.63/MWh from €66.54/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • German wind is expected at just 11.34GW, or an 18% load factor on 24 September – up from just 5% forecasts for today – and is expected to rise to be between 24-31% load factors, or 15.75-20.09GW over 25-26 September –possibly weighing down delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise on the day to around 53.6GW on Tuesday from about 51.1GW estimated for today. Demand will then rise on 25 Sept to around 54.7GW and remain firm the next day.
  • Germany’s 290MW Janschwalde lignite plant is expected to have works over 26-27 September, latest Remit data show.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at 5.66GW, or a 28% load factor on 24 September – firm from 24% expected for today. Wind will then rise between 38-51% load factor over the next two days.
  • French nuclear availability was at 73% of capacity as of Monday morning unchanged from Friday's 71%, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 and 1.3GW Paluel 4 reactors have had their works extended by 5-4 days, respectively, with the units back online on 30 Sept.
  • And the 915MW Cruas 4 nuclear unit is now expected to return on 28 Sept – four days later than originally planned. 
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The German and French day-ahead baseload both declined, with Germany dropping sharply from its two-week high in the previous session amid higher wind forecasts on the day, with France remaining relatively unchanged as domestic wind generation is expected to remain firm.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €91.77MWh from €121.36/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €54.14/MWh from €54.82/MWh on the previous day.
  • FR-DE discount was at €37.63/MWh from €66.54/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • German wind is expected at just 11.34GW, or an 18% load factor on 24 September – up from just 5% forecasts for today – and is expected to rise to be between 24-31% load factors, or 15.75-20.09GW over 25-26 September –possibly weighing down delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise on the day to around 53.6GW on Tuesday from about 51.1GW estimated for today. Demand will then rise on 25 Sept to around 54.7GW and remain firm the next day.
  • Germany’s 290MW Janschwalde lignite plant is expected to have works over 26-27 September, latest Remit data show.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at 5.66GW, or a 28% load factor on 24 September – firm from 24% expected for today. Wind will then rise between 38-51% load factor over the next two days.
  • French nuclear availability was at 73% of capacity as of Monday morning unchanged from Friday's 71%, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 and 1.3GW Paluel 4 reactors have had their works extended by 5-4 days, respectively, with the units back online on 30 Sept.
  • And the 915MW Cruas 4 nuclear unit is now expected to return on 28 Sept – four days later than originally planned.