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POWER: German Day Ahead Flips Back to Discount to France

POWER
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German and French day-ahead power prices diverged, flipping Germany back to a discount to France. In Germany, a sharp rise in wind generation, coupled with only a slight increase in power demand, pressured domestic prices downward. Meanwhile, French prices were supported by a modest rise in consumption, while wind generation remained much lower both on the day and compared to Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €96.07/MWh from €119.99/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €109.77/MWh from €82.06/MWh on the previous day.
  • France flipped back to a €13.70/MWh premium from €37.93/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise sharply on the day to 31.26GW on Thursday – revised down by around 430MW – from 23.29GW on Wednesday. Looking ahead, wind is expected to drop sharply to 6.44GW the next day – which could support delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise on the day to 61.39GW on Thursday from 60.62GW on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then be at 59.63GW on 29 Nov – which could place some downward pressure on costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to drop sharply on the day at 2.44GW, or 12% load factor on Thursday from 9.27GW, or a 46% load factor on Wednesday. Wind will then be at 4.84GW, or a 24% load factor on 29 Nov – which could weigh on delivery prices from the previous session.
  • French power demand is also expected to rise sharply on the day tomorrow to be at 58.73GW compared to 56.34GW estimated for today. Demand will then be at 61.14GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 85% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 8-% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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German and French day-ahead power prices diverged, flipping Germany back to a discount to France. In Germany, a sharp rise in wind generation, coupled with only a slight increase in power demand, pressured domestic prices downward. Meanwhile, French prices were supported by a modest rise in consumption, while wind generation remained much lower both on the day and compared to Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €96.07/MWh from €119.99/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €109.77/MWh from €82.06/MWh on the previous day.
  • France flipped back to a €13.70/MWh premium from €37.93/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise sharply on the day to 31.26GW on Thursday – revised down by around 430MW – from 23.29GW on Wednesday. Looking ahead, wind is expected to drop sharply to 6.44GW the next day – which could support delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise on the day to 61.39GW on Thursday from 60.62GW on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then be at 59.63GW on 29 Nov – which could place some downward pressure on costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to drop sharply on the day at 2.44GW, or 12% load factor on Thursday from 9.27GW, or a 46% load factor on Wednesday. Wind will then be at 4.84GW, or a 24% load factor on 29 Nov – which could weigh on delivery prices from the previous session.
  • French power demand is also expected to rise sharply on the day tomorrow to be at 58.73GW compared to 56.34GW estimated for today. Demand will then be at 61.14GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 85% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 8-% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.