November 26, 2024 08:07 GMT
POWER: German December Pulls Back on Weather, Energy Complex
POWER
Germany December power is pulling back to the lowest since 20 November with an upward revision in temperature forecasts, an upward revision in wind output and losses in the energy complex. The German spot index is expected to rise on the day with higher residual load due to lower renewables output and slightly higher demand.
- Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 3% at 102.85 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 24 down 1.5% at 68.79 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.4% at 47.075 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 36.5% at -10.7609 EUR/MWh
- TTF drifts lower with European temperatures holding near normal and as storage withdrawals return to seasonal normal levels.
- EU ETS December 2024 is pulling back today with losses in EU gas prices an upward revision in NW European weather forecasts. This is despite improved coal margins vs gas in recent days amid rallying EU gas prices.
- The next EU Primary Auction CAP3 EUA auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall to 22.81GW during base load on Wednesday, down from 23.65GW forecasted for Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to decline to 4.42GW during peak load on Wednesday, down from 5.28GW forecasted for Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggested mean temperatures have been revised higher with temperatures mixed below and above normal through the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to fall to 8C on Wednesday, down from 8.4C on Tuesday and above the seasonal normal of 5.1C.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge higher to 60.62GW on Wednesday, up from 60.41GW on Tuesday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to rise by 6.3GWh/h on the day according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydrobalance has been revised down on the day to end at -395GWh on 10 December, down from -358GWh forecasted a day earlier.
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