POWER: German Front-Month Edges Up

Germany Sept power is stable this morning, only edging up slightly on the day, to track similar gains in European carbon allowances and natural gas. German wind output is forecast to drop to a 7% load factor on Friday from today – likely lifting costs.

• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 0.6% at 91.3 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 70.85 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 up 1.1% at 38.94 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month is rising today due to reduced Norwegian supplies during maintenance while increasing LNG supplies compensate for the drop in pipeline gas imports.
• EU ETS Dec24 is edging higher on Thursday, with natural gas prices supporting. The next EU EUA CAP 3 auction will clear at 11:00 CET today, with the previous action clearing at €70.17/ton CO2e from €69.28/ton CO2e on 26 August, according to EEX.
• In Germany, wind output is forecast at just 4.65GW on Friday, down from 6.63GW estimated for Thursday before rising to a 12% load factor the next day – possibly weighing down delivery costs, coupled with high demand, according to SpotRenewables.
• But Germany’s 424MW gas-fired Mark-E Heizkraftwerk power plant is anticipated to have maintenance over 30 August – 2 September – likely lowering baseload generation.
• German lignite generation is at around 8.26GW this morning, higher than the 2019-23 average of 6.34GW over the same period.
• In contrast gas-fired output is at 7.64GW on Thursday morning, higher than the 5-year average of 5.59GW for the same day.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Berlin suggests mean temperatures have been revised up over 29-31 by between 0.3-0.5C, with temperatures remaining above the 30-year norm for all forecast days.