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POWER: German Nov Power Tracks Small Weekly Decline

POWER
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German front-month power is tracking a weekly net increase of 0.5%, with support from a weekly rise in EU carbon allowances, while gas prices are currently down on the week. Closer in, prices on Sunday are likely to fall in negative territory with expectations of negative residual load amid lower demand and surging wind output. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1.3% at 88.22 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 64.68 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.9% at 39.915 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is edging down from a high of €40.4/MWh yesterday and below a peak of €41.18/MWh from Oct. 4 with markets closely watching Israel’s retaliation to a previous Iranian strike. Fundamentals remain steady with mild weather forecast, recovering Norway supply and gas storages slowly  building.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower with moves again in line with EU gas prices since Thursday’s session. Allowances are tracking a weekly increase of just above 4%. The next German EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 13.56GW on Saturday during base load. Solar PV output is forecast to increase on the day to 15.5GW during peak load on Saturday, up from 13.3GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German wind output is forecast to surge to 32.14GW during base load on Sunday, with residual load expected as low as -0.3GWh/h, Reuters estimates showed, before easing back at the start of next week.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to peak at 65.49GW on Friday, before falling to 53.67GW and 48.64GW on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe to fall below normal on 10-14 October, before rising back up to above normal. 
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German front-month power is tracking a weekly net increase of 0.5%, with support from a weekly rise in EU carbon allowances, while gas prices are currently down on the week. Closer in, prices on Sunday are likely to fall in negative territory with expectations of negative residual load amid lower demand and surging wind output. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1.3% at 88.22 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 64.68 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.9% at 39.915 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is edging down from a high of €40.4/MWh yesterday and below a peak of €41.18/MWh from Oct. 4 with markets closely watching Israel’s retaliation to a previous Iranian strike. Fundamentals remain steady with mild weather forecast, recovering Norway supply and gas storages slowly  building.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower with moves again in line with EU gas prices since Thursday’s session. Allowances are tracking a weekly increase of just above 4%. The next German EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 13.56GW on Saturday during base load. Solar PV output is forecast to increase on the day to 15.5GW during peak load on Saturday, up from 13.3GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German wind output is forecast to surge to 32.14GW during base load on Sunday, with residual load expected as low as -0.3GWh/h, Reuters estimates showed, before easing back at the start of next week.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to peak at 65.49GW on Friday, before falling to 53.67GW and 48.64GW on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe to fall below normal on 10-14 October, before rising back up to above normal.