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POWER: German Oct Rebounds, Down On Week

POWER
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The German Oct has rebounded from the previous session to track similar movements in TTF, with a slight increase in emissions supporting.  However, the contract is on track to clear down on the week.

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 2.5% at 73.74 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 63.29 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 3% at 34.06 EUR/MWh
  • TTF rebounded after hitting its lowest point since late July, driven by reports of a potential gas supply deal between Azerbaijan and Europe via Ukraine once the Russia deal ends, though no agreement has been signed yet.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is tracking gains in the TTF market, with the anticipation of strong wind next week possibly limiting gains. The next German EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany over next week is expected to pick on the week and is anticipated between 9-38% load factors over the 23-28 Sept, with wind on 23 Sept to be the lowest over the period – which could raise prices to a weekly high coupled with rising demand.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Berlin suggested mean temperatures to be above normal of around 11-14C over 20-27 Sept at between 15-17.2C, however max temperatures are not seen rising above 25C – possibly limiting cooling demand.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to drop on the day to around 44.2GW on Saturday from about 52.4GW estimated for today – possibly weighing on delivery costs. Demand will then rise on 23 Sept to around 52.01GW. 
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The German Oct has rebounded from the previous session to track similar movements in TTF, with a slight increase in emissions supporting.  However, the contract is on track to clear down on the week.

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 2.5% at 73.74 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 63.29 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 3% at 34.06 EUR/MWh
  • TTF rebounded after hitting its lowest point since late July, driven by reports of a potential gas supply deal between Azerbaijan and Europe via Ukraine once the Russia deal ends, though no agreement has been signed yet.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is tracking gains in the TTF market, with the anticipation of strong wind next week possibly limiting gains. The next German EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany over next week is expected to pick on the week and is anticipated between 9-38% load factors over the 23-28 Sept, with wind on 23 Sept to be the lowest over the period – which could raise prices to a weekly high coupled with rising demand.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Berlin suggested mean temperatures to be above normal of around 11-14C over 20-27 Sept at between 15-17.2C, however max temperatures are not seen rising above 25C – possibly limiting cooling demand.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to drop on the day to around 44.2GW on Saturday from about 52.4GW estimated for today – possibly weighing on delivery costs. Demand will then rise on 23 Sept to around 52.01GW.