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POWER: German Oct Resits Rising TTF, Emissions

POWER
CommoditiesCEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsGermanyBulletPower BulletsGlobalRegion

The German Oct is trending down amid the week-ahead product being weighed by anticipation of strong wind next week. But increases in TTF and emissions may lend support, while temps in Berlin are set to drop below the norm over 29-30 Sept.

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 0.7% at 74.46 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 63.43 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1.2% at 34.855 EUR/MWh
  • TTF prices rebound from last week's decline, driven by optimism over Ukraine pipeline supplies, recovering Norway flows, rising Middle East tensions, and colder weather later this week.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is starting the week up on the day to track gains in the TTF market. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany over next week is expected to rise on the day – to be at around 10.29GW on 24 Sept, up from 4.2GW for today – which could weigh on delivery costs. Wind is then anticipated to climb to be at 14.5-29.8GW over 25-27 Sept.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Berlin suggested mean temperatures to be above normal of around 12-13C over 24-27 Sept, with temperatures then dropping to be at around 10C over 29-30 Sept.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise on the day to around 53.6GW on Tuesday from about 51.1GW estimated for today – possibly supporting delivery costs. Demand will then rise on 25 Sept to around 54.7GW.
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The German Oct is trending down amid the week-ahead product being weighed by anticipation of strong wind next week. But increases in TTF and emissions may lend support, while temps in Berlin are set to drop below the norm over 29-30 Sept.

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 0.7% at 74.46 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 63.43 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1.2% at 34.855 EUR/MWh
  • TTF prices rebound from last week's decline, driven by optimism over Ukraine pipeline supplies, recovering Norway flows, rising Middle East tensions, and colder weather later this week.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is starting the week up on the day to track gains in the TTF market. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany over next week is expected to rise on the day – to be at around 10.29GW on 24 Sept, up from 4.2GW for today – which could weigh on delivery costs. Wind is then anticipated to climb to be at 14.5-29.8GW over 25-27 Sept.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Berlin suggested mean temperatures to be above normal of around 12-13C over 24-27 Sept, with temperatures then dropping to be at around 10C over 29-30 Sept.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise on the day to around 53.6GW on Tuesday from about 51.1GW estimated for today – possibly supporting delivery costs. Demand will then rise on 25 Sept to around 54.7GW.