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POWER: German Spot Power May Increase on Lower Wind

POWER

German front-month power is broadly stable on the day with stable European carbon allowances and natural gas prices. German spot power prices are likely to increase for Thursday’s delivery amid forecasts for lower wind, while solar PV output is forecast to edge higher. 

  • TTF front month is stable today after yesterday falling to the lowest since Aug 7 driven by an easing of supply risk sentiment and with a slight recovery in Norwegian supplies on the day.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging slightly higher on Wednesday. There will be no auction today. The latest ICE EUA COT data will be released this morning. 
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested mean temperatures have been revised down at the start of the forecast period but temperatures will remain mostly above the seasonal normal throughout the forecast period. 
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast to ease back on Thursday to 16.75GW during base load, down from 19.44GW forecast for Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase on the day to 13.25GW during base load, up from 12.7GW forecast for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 62.56GW on Thursday, slightly up from a maximum of 62.45GW on Wednesday, the latest BBG ECMWF forecast showed. 
  • In Switzerland, hydropower stocks increased by 0.5 percentage points last week to 83.6% of capacity, narrowing the premium to the five-year and long-term averages, BFE data showed. 
    • Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 0.2% at 91.65 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 0.3% at 73.29 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas SEP 24 down 0% at 37.94 EUR/MWh
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