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POWER: German Spot Power To Fall

POWER
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German spot power is expected to decline on Thursday due to lower demand amid a public holiday, while wind output is forecast to edge slightly lower on the day. Further out, German front-month power is trading higher with small gains in the energy complex amid Middle East tensions. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.7% at 88.75 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.8% at 64.11 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.7% at 39.535 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is trading higher but has eased back from a high of €40.545/MWh after prices surged on LNG supply risks after Iran airstrikes on Israel. The Middle East escalation represents one of the most significant attacks with as many as 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel which were largely thwarted by Israel’s defence systems.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is pulling higher, recovering yesterday’s losses with gains in natural gas prices. The latest ICE UKA auction and the Northern Irish Primary Auction will clear today.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge lower on the day to 13.41GW during base load on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge slightly higher on the day to 9.41GW during peak-load hours according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast showed a downward revision at the start of the forecast but an upward revision at the end of the forecast mean temperatures in NW Europe expected to remain below normal until 6 October before rising above the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-16C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall sharply on Thursday to a maximum of 49.18GW, down from a maximum of 65.41GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed, due to Germany’s Unity Day holiday on Thursday.
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German spot power is expected to decline on Thursday due to lower demand amid a public holiday, while wind output is forecast to edge slightly lower on the day. Further out, German front-month power is trading higher with small gains in the energy complex amid Middle East tensions. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.7% at 88.75 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.8% at 64.11 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.7% at 39.535 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is trading higher but has eased back from a high of €40.545/MWh after prices surged on LNG supply risks after Iran airstrikes on Israel. The Middle East escalation represents one of the most significant attacks with as many as 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel which were largely thwarted by Israel’s defence systems.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is pulling higher, recovering yesterday’s losses with gains in natural gas prices. The latest ICE UKA auction and the Northern Irish Primary Auction will clear today.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge lower on the day to 13.41GW during base load on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge slightly higher on the day to 9.41GW during peak-load hours according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast showed a downward revision at the start of the forecast but an upward revision at the end of the forecast mean temperatures in NW Europe expected to remain below normal until 6 October before rising above the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-16C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall sharply on Thursday to a maximum of 49.18GW, down from a maximum of 65.41GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed, due to Germany’s Unity Day holiday on Thursday.