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POWER: Mid-Day Power Summary: Norway Oct Plunges on Wetter Outlook

POWER

 Nordic front-month power prices are pulling back sharply today with forecasts suggesting a wetter outlook and a positive hydrobalance, while losses in European gas markets and the German market are adding additional downside. German spot power moved below France today amid forecasts for higher renewables output. 

  • France Base Power OCT 24 down 2.3% at 68 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 1.4% at 83.48 EUR/MWh
  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 13% at 19.75 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.6% at 67.77 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.6% at 36.605 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is extending the recent decline, falling towards the lows of around €36.1/MWh from Aug 23 despite ongoing Norway maintenance.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is pulling back today with losses in natural gas prices and more bearish funds positioning. Investment funds positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish with net short positioning increasing for the first time since late July.
  • Forecasts for subsurface carbon storage rates of up to 30 (Gt) CO2/yr by 2050 have been overestimated amid overlooked limitations.
  • Investment funds positioning in ICE German power futures rebounded from the previous week to increase their net long position to the highest since 16 August.
  • In France, unplanned works at 880MW Bugey 4 have been extended by one day until 5 Sept. Planed works at 1.5GW Chooz 2 have been brought forward to 30 Sept, from 7 Oct preciously.
  • Swiss hydropower reserves last week declined by 1.2 percentage points to 83.6% of capacity as of 2 September.
  • The Dutch 2GW each IJmuiden Ver Gamma and Nederwiek offshore wind tenders have been split into four 1GW sites.
  • Rhine water levels at the Kaub measuring point are recovering after falling to the lowest since October on 2 September.
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