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POWER: Nordic Curve Flips on Updated Dried Outlook

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve turned northward from the early morning session – as an updated forecasts of Norway’s hydro balance have indicated a drier outlook, with cooler temperatures expected while neighbouring EU power markets have remained in red to track gas – potentially capping gains.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 up 2.9% at 46 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1.1% at 85.9 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.6% at 62.4 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.2% at 39.845 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised lower and is now expected at +393GWh on 18 Oct compared +466GWh for the same day estimated earlier this morning.
  • However, Sweden’s hydro balance is now expected to end at +2.14TWh on 18 Oct compared to +2.00TWh in the earlier forecasts for the same day.
  • Average Temperatures are still set to flip to be above the norm from 8 Oct but will be back below starting from 12 Oct to reach as low as 5.33C on 13 Oct. 
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The Nordic forward curve turned northward from the early morning session – as an updated forecasts of Norway’s hydro balance have indicated a drier outlook, with cooler temperatures expected while neighbouring EU power markets have remained in red to track gas – potentially capping gains.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 up 2.9% at 46 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1.1% at 85.9 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.6% at 62.4 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.2% at 39.845 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised lower and is now expected at +393GWh on 18 Oct compared +466GWh for the same day estimated earlier this morning.
  • However, Sweden’s hydro balance is now expected to end at +2.14TWh on 18 Oct compared to +2.00TWh in the earlier forecasts for the same day.
  • Average Temperatures are still set to flip to be above the norm from 8 Oct but will be back below starting from 12 Oct to reach as low as 5.33C on 13 Oct.