POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Continue Upward on Drier Outlook

The Nordic forward curve could continue upward from the previous session as Norway and Sweden’s hydro balance was revised down further, with EU ETS also supporting it. Norwegian wind is expected at 42% load factor on 12 Sept, which could drop costs lower on the day.

• Nordic Base Power OCT 24 closed up 7.4% at 22.55 EUR/MWh on 10 September.
• Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 0.3% at 79.62 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 65.18 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas OCT 24 down 0% at 35.28 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down over 16-23 September, however, with upward revision present for 24-25 Sept, with the balance ending at +1.57TWh on 25 September compared to +1.72TWh on 23 September.
• And Sweden’s balance has been dented even more than Norway's on the day, with downward revision present over 13-25 September, the largest of which, being on 22-23 Sept at about 450 GWh/day.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics will be above the 30-year norm of around 11-12C over the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts - with temps beginning to pick up from 12 September to reach as high as 15C on 19 Sept.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 63% capacity on Wednesday, up from 57% on Tuesday, with 7 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
• The 1.13GW Ringhals 4 nuclear unit is expected to return on 14 September, latest Remit data show.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 42% load factor, or 2.20GW on 12 September – unchanged on the day, which could drop power prices from the previous session, with wind then expected at 38% the next day – keeping weight on prices