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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Trade in Red on Temps, Nuke Return

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could be weighed down, with 1Q25 already trading in red, amid forecasts for Sweden's and Norway's hydrological balance to remain strong on the day, with temperatures in the region now set to flip above the seasonal norm from early Dec. The 1.6GW OL3 also returned to the grid which could also weigh, with the 507MW Loviisa 2 still anticipated to come back online later today.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 closed up 1% at 52 EUR/MWh on 21 Nov
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 2.5% at 97.6 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 1.5% at 105 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 69.68 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 0.2% at 48.2 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuclear power plant is currently running at around 1.45GW of capacity, with the 507MW Loviisa 2 anticipated at to be back online on 22 Nov at 18:00 CET – pushed back slightly from 13:00 CET.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to remain firm from previous forecasts on 6 Dec at +5.07TWh compared to +4.99TWh in the previous estimate for the same day.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +2.70TWh on 6 Dec compared to +2.71TWh in the previous estimate.
  • The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation in the region to flip above norm on 1 Dec at about 3.02mm to reach as high as 5.9mm the next day.
  • And average temperatures in the region will begin to drop from their peak on 25 Nov to flip below the norm over 28-30 Nov before flipping back above over 1-3 Dec at between 1.6-3.9C.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 1.49GW on 23 Nov – down from the 1.06GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery costs coupled with lower demand and the return of the OL3 Nuke.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 83% capacity on Friday morning, up from 70% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
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The Nordic forward curve could be weighed down, with 1Q25 already trading in red, amid forecasts for Sweden's and Norway's hydrological balance to remain strong on the day, with temperatures in the region now set to flip above the seasonal norm from early Dec. The 1.6GW OL3 also returned to the grid which could also weigh, with the 507MW Loviisa 2 still anticipated to come back online later today.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 closed up 1% at 52 EUR/MWh on 21 Nov
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 2.5% at 97.6 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 1.5% at 105 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 69.68 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 0.2% at 48.2 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuclear power plant is currently running at around 1.45GW of capacity, with the 507MW Loviisa 2 anticipated at to be back online on 22 Nov at 18:00 CET – pushed back slightly from 13:00 CET.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to remain firm from previous forecasts on 6 Dec at +5.07TWh compared to +4.99TWh in the previous estimate for the same day.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +2.70TWh on 6 Dec compared to +2.71TWh in the previous estimate.
  • The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation in the region to flip above norm on 1 Dec at about 3.02mm to reach as high as 5.9mm the next day.
  • And average temperatures in the region will begin to drop from their peak on 25 Nov to flip below the norm over 28-30 Nov before flipping back above over 1-3 Dec at between 1.6-3.9C.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 1.49GW on 23 Nov – down from the 1.06GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery costs coupled with lower demand and the return of the OL3 Nuke.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 83% capacity on Friday morning, up from 70% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.