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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Declines on Germany, TTF

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory as European gas and emissions costs are weighing on neighbouring EU power markets, dropping domestic costs, however, Norway’s hydro balance was revised lower on the day and temperatures are forecast to be well above the 30-year norm - which could lend some support.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 11.9% at 20 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 0.6% at 84.11 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 67.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.5% at 36.62 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down further for all days over the two-week forecast, with the biggest revision seen over 9-11 September at around -400 GWh/day, with the balance expected to start trending downward from 4 September of around +3.47TWh to +2.14TWh on 18 September.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will be above the 30-year norm of around 11-12C over 4-13 September at 14-19C. Max temperatures are estimated as be as high as 24C on 5 September, however, cooling demand could still be limited.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 74% capacity on Wednesday, unchanged on the day, with 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Denmark’s 407MW Horns Rev C curtailed its capacity by 117MW for 7 hours amid planned maintenance this morning. The unit is in the DK1 zone.
  • And Finland 132MW Metsalamminkankaan tuulipuisto wind park was also disconnected this morning for around15 hours
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 11% load factor, or 0.56GW on 5 September – unchanged on the day, which could lift power prices from the previous session, however, gains could be limited amid firm nuclear availability.
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory as European gas and emissions costs are weighing on neighbouring EU power markets, dropping domestic costs, however, Norway’s hydro balance was revised lower on the day and temperatures are forecast to be well above the 30-year norm - which could lend some support.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 11.9% at 20 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 0.6% at 84.11 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 67.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.5% at 36.62 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down further for all days over the two-week forecast, with the biggest revision seen over 9-11 September at around -400 GWh/day, with the balance expected to start trending downward from 4 September of around +3.47TWh to +2.14TWh on 18 September.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will be above the 30-year norm of around 11-12C over 4-13 September at 14-19C. Max temperatures are estimated as be as high as 24C on 5 September, however, cooling demand could still be limited.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 74% capacity on Wednesday, unchanged on the day, with 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Denmark’s 407MW Horns Rev C curtailed its capacity by 117MW for 7 hours amid planned maintenance this morning. The unit is in the DK1 zone.
  • And Finland 132MW Metsalamminkankaan tuulipuisto wind park was also disconnected this morning for around15 hours
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 11% load factor, or 0.56GW on 5 September – unchanged on the day, which could lift power prices from the previous session, however, gains could be limited amid firm nuclear availability.