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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Moves South

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory to resist slight gains in European gas and emissions costs amid a wetter outlook in Norway and warmer temperatures expected next week. The ramping up of the 507MW Loviisa unit 1 fully complete – raising baseload generation – with the 1.6GW OL3 also back to normal production levels.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 1.4% at 44.25 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0% at 74 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.6% at 85.98 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.7% at 63.08 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.3% at 38.445 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up for all days over the 11-24 Oct, with the biggest revision seen over 23-24 Oct at around +340GWh/day, with the balance expected to end at +704GWh on 24 Oct compared to +328GWh in the previous forecasts.
  • However, Sweden’s balance has been slightly lowered – albeit remaining strong – and is now anticipated at +1.45TWh on 24 Oct from +1.81TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are now expected to be sharply above the 30-year norm from 17 Oct to reach as high 10.4C over 18-19 Oct – about 4C above the seasonal norm, ECMWF Shows.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 82% capacity on Thursday, edging down from 83% on Wednesday, with now 10 of 11 units online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 507MW Loviisa 1 and Loviisa 2 reactors are now running at about full capacity, with the 1.6GW OL3 reactors producing at 1.21GW, TVO data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at 1.54GW on 11 Oct up by around 600MW on the day – which could drop power prices from the previous session. 
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory to resist slight gains in European gas and emissions costs amid a wetter outlook in Norway and warmer temperatures expected next week. The ramping up of the 507MW Loviisa unit 1 fully complete – raising baseload generation – with the 1.6GW OL3 also back to normal production levels.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 1.4% at 44.25 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0% at 74 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.6% at 85.98 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.7% at 63.08 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.3% at 38.445 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up for all days over the 11-24 Oct, with the biggest revision seen over 23-24 Oct at around +340GWh/day, with the balance expected to end at +704GWh on 24 Oct compared to +328GWh in the previous forecasts.
  • However, Sweden’s balance has been slightly lowered – albeit remaining strong – and is now anticipated at +1.45TWh on 24 Oct from +1.81TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are now expected to be sharply above the 30-year norm from 17 Oct to reach as high 10.4C over 18-19 Oct – about 4C above the seasonal norm, ECMWF Shows.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 82% capacity on Thursday, edging down from 83% on Wednesday, with now 10 of 11 units online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 507MW Loviisa 1 and Loviisa 2 reactors are now running at about full capacity, with the 1.6GW OL3 reactors producing at 1.21GW, TVO data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at 1.54GW on 11 Oct up by around 600MW on the day – which could drop power prices from the previous session.