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POWER: Nordic Front Month Eyeing 5 Sept Low

POWER
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The Nordic October contract closed on Friday to align with its price on 6 September and could decline below as neighbouring EU power markets are trending lower due to losses in TTF, emissions. However, the Nordic Hydro balance has been revised slightly down, which could support the product, but hydro-rich Sweden and Norway are still anticipated to have a positive balance.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 closed down 1.2% at 20.75 EUR/MWh on 13 Sept.
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 2.7% at 75.2 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.6% at 63.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 2.5% at 34.74 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down from previous forecasts over 15-30 September, with the highest revision on 24 Sept at around -200 GWh, with the balance ending +1.72TWh on 30 September.
  • Finland is also anticipated to have a drier outlook and will still be negative towards the end of this month at -328GWh.
  • Sweden is expected to end at just +42GWh on 30 Sept, down from the previous forecast of +82GWh.
  • Precipitation in the region is expected to be below the 30-year norm over 17-24 September but will flip to be above the next day.
  • However, Biomass capacity in Denmark is expected to increase by 380MW on 16 September owing to works at a unit at the 760MW Studstrupaerrket plant.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is to be higher on the day on 17 September at around 1.15GW – up from the 0.805GW forecast for today, with wind then rising to 1.24GW on 18 September – which could keep weight on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 66% capacity on Monday morning, up from 66% on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 is expected to return to the grid today, with full power reached in around 60Hrs, latest Remit data show. 
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The Nordic October contract closed on Friday to align with its price on 6 September and could decline below as neighbouring EU power markets are trending lower due to losses in TTF, emissions. However, the Nordic Hydro balance has been revised slightly down, which could support the product, but hydro-rich Sweden and Norway are still anticipated to have a positive balance.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 closed down 1.2% at 20.75 EUR/MWh on 13 Sept.
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 2.7% at 75.2 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.6% at 63.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 2.5% at 34.74 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down from previous forecasts over 15-30 September, with the highest revision on 24 Sept at around -200 GWh, with the balance ending +1.72TWh on 30 September.
  • Finland is also anticipated to have a drier outlook and will still be negative towards the end of this month at -328GWh.
  • Sweden is expected to end at just +42GWh on 30 Sept, down from the previous forecast of +82GWh.
  • Precipitation in the region is expected to be below the 30-year norm over 17-24 September but will flip to be above the next day.
  • However, Biomass capacity in Denmark is expected to increase by 380MW on 16 September owing to works at a unit at the 760MW Studstrupaerrket plant.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is to be higher on the day on 17 September at around 1.15GW – up from the 0.805GW forecast for today, with wind then rising to 1.24GW on 18 September – which could keep weight on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 66% capacity on Monday morning, up from 66% on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 is expected to return to the grid today, with full power reached in around 60Hrs, latest Remit data show.