POWER: Nordic Front Month Leads Gains On Curve

The Nordic October contract is leading gains on the Nordic future curve, with a downward revision of both Sweden’s and Norway's hydro balance supporting gains. Temperatures are set to drop sharply compared to the previous two days – albeit above the norm – with the German equivalent trending up.

• Nordic Base Power OCT 24 up 10.7% at 23.25 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 0.8% at 84.99 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.6% at 66.91 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1% at 37.705 EUR/MWh
• The contract is nearing the average settling price for system-wide Nordic price for the October 2023 delivery period at €26.47/MWh.
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down further over 19-24 September, with the balance now ending at +1.72TWh on 23 September compared to +2.75TWh for the same day in the previous forecasts.
• Sweden is also forecast to have a drier outlook, with downward revisions of its balance anticipated over 10-24 September – with the balance ending slightly below 1TWh at 888GWh on 24 September.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to drop by around 5C to 13.7C on 12 September from 18.3C forecasts for 9 September.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is to be higher on the day on 11 September at 34% load factor, or 1.79GW – likely dropping costs from the previous session – which settled just above €1/MWh –  and opening the door for negative prices for some delivery hours.
• Nordic nuclear availability was at 57%, down from 62% on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
• Finland’s 890MW OL2 nuclear reactor is still anticipated to be offline until 29 September “at the earliest”, with the investigation currently ongoing, TVO said.