POWER
Nordic hydropower reserves increased at the slowest pace since week 31 last week (week 36), with stocks at 80.3% of capacity, or 101.93TWh, with reserves widening their deficit to the 19-year avg, while the surplus on year remained unchanged on week.
- Stocks increased by just 0.2 percentage points compared to a 1.7-point gain the week prior and a 2.5-point rise in week 34.
- Reservoir levels remained at a 2.3-point surplus on the year, while the deficit to the 19-year average widened to 2 points from 1.6 points.
- Stocks only slightly edged up amid precipitation in the region averaging 1.82mm over 2-8 September (week 36) compared to 2.5mm averaged the week prior.
- Swedish reserves ended their 19-week upward trend to be at parity to levels in week 35 at 78.5% of capacity, while Norwegian reserves climbed to 82.7% from 81.7% of capacity.
- And Finnish hydro stocks continued their fall dropping to 62.8% of capacity from 64.1% the week prior and remained sharply down on the year, with the same week in 2023 at 71.4% of capacity.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF forecast suggests the hydrological balance in Norway and Sweden is mixed, with an upward revision of Norway’s balance from this morning present over 11-25 September, while Sweden’s balance has been revised down for most days over 11-19 Sept.
- Precipitation in the Nordics will be mostly above the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm over 12-15 Sept– flipping below over 16-19 Sept.
- The 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 is still offline until 14 September, with the 890MW OL2 offline until 29 September – which could weigh on stocks.
The Nordic October has given back all of its gains from the morning amid an upward revision of Norway’s hydro balance and increases in Nordic reservoir levels.
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