POWER
Nordic hydropower reserves declined for the first time since week 17 last week (week 38), with stocks at 81.2% of capacity, or 103.03TWh amid a sharp on-week fall in precipitation, with higher demand also contributing to the loss.
- Stocks decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared to a 1.6-point gain the week prior. This is the first time stocks have noted a loss since having started their upward trend in week 18 of this year.
- Precipitation in the Nordic region over 16-22 Sept totalled 1.8mm (week 38) compared to 45.8mm totalled over 9-15 Sept (week 37) – weighing on stocks.
- Higher demand on the week also weighed, with Norwegian demand averaging 13.29GW compared to 12.93GW in week 37. Swedish demand averaged 12.8GW from 12.7GW over the same period.
- Reservoir levels flipped to a 0.8-point deficit on the year compared to a 3.6-point surplus the week prior.
- The deficit to the 19-year average widened to 2.9 points from 1.4 points in week 37. This is now the largest deficit since week 34.
- Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 78.9% of capacity from 79.6%, with Norwegian reserves falling to 83.3% from 84.1% of capacity.
- And Finnish hydro stocks continued their fall, dropping to 60.8% of capacity from 62.4% the week prior and was 13 points lower on the year.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +2.86TWh and +1.36TWh, respectively, on 9 Oct compared to +2.36TWh and +1.07TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation to reach 7.8mm tomorrow to later reach as high as 8.9mm on 27 Sept – up compared to the norm of just 2.7mm.
274 words