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POWER: Nordic Nov Could Climb As Norway's Hydro Balance Flips Negative

POWER
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The Nordic front month could end its two-session downward trend as Norway’s hydro balance is expected to turn negative towards the end of October, and temperatures are set to near the low of the forecast range going into next week. However, with losses in German power and falling TTF, the curve could be weighed.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 closed down 1.1% at 44.25 EUR/MWh on 8 Oct
  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0.7% at 70.61 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.9% at 84 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 60.53 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.4% at 38.37 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance is expected to flip negative on 14 October at -126GWh compared to positive on 13 Oct at +22GWh. The balance is expected to remain negative on 23 October at -201GWh compared to +1.47TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • However, Sweden's balance is expected to remain positive – although halving from previous forecasts – to be at +571GWh on 23 Oct compared to +1.22TWh in previous estimates.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as low as 4.85C on 15 Oct – towards the lower end of the ECMWF forecasts – and about 2C below seasonal Norms.
  • But the wind speed forecast for Nordics suggests speeds to be mostly above the seasonal norm of 4 m/s throughout the 6–10-day estimate.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 0.958GW on 10 Oct – in line with forecasts for today. Wind is anticipated at 1.31GW the next day – which could drop delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 83% capacity on Wednesday morning, up from 82% on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 507MW Loviisa unit will begin powering up from 17:00 CET today, with the unit reaching full capacity in 53 Hours. 
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The Nordic front month could end its two-session downward trend as Norway’s hydro balance is expected to turn negative towards the end of October, and temperatures are set to near the low of the forecast range going into next week. However, with losses in German power and falling TTF, the curve could be weighed.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 closed down 1.1% at 44.25 EUR/MWh on 8 Oct
  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0.7% at 70.61 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.9% at 84 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 60.53 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.4% at 38.37 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance is expected to flip negative on 14 October at -126GWh compared to positive on 13 Oct at +22GWh. The balance is expected to remain negative on 23 October at -201GWh compared to +1.47TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • However, Sweden's balance is expected to remain positive – although halving from previous forecasts – to be at +571GWh on 23 Oct compared to +1.22TWh in previous estimates.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as low as 4.85C on 15 Oct – towards the lower end of the ECMWF forecasts – and about 2C below seasonal Norms.
  • But the wind speed forecast for Nordics suggests speeds to be mostly above the seasonal norm of 4 m/s throughout the 6–10-day estimate.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 0.958GW on 10 Oct – in line with forecasts for today. Wind is anticipated at 1.31GW the next day – which could drop delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 83% capacity on Wednesday morning, up from 82% on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 507MW Loviisa unit will begin powering up from 17:00 CET today, with the unit reaching full capacity in 53 Hours.