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POWER: Nordic Q4 Could Trend Up on Germany, TTF

POWER
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The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract could be lifted, with gains in the German power market owing to rising TTF and emissions supporting. The Nordic hydro balance is relatively unchanged on the day but has been revised up towards the end of September amid the expected return of the 890MW OL2 on 29 Sept - which could weigh on prices.

  • Nordic Base Power Q4 closed down 4.1% at 35.25 EUR/MWh on 12 Sept.
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 0.8% at 78.95 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.6% at 65.81 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1.7% at 35.785 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up from 24-25 September, with the highest revision on 27 September at +163GWh, with the balance ending at +1.7TWh on 27 Sept, while Sweden will end at +491GWh on the same day – up from +369GWh in the previous forecast.
  • But rainfall in the Nordics is expected to be below the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm for the entire 6–10-day ECMWF forecast, with rain anticipated to reach as low as 0mm for most days over 16-22 September.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in the quarter due to works until 18 October, the latest remit data show.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 9-17% load factors, or 0.476-0.871GW over 14-15 September– which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand. Wind is then expected to rise over 16-17 September at 14-13% load factors – likely keeping downward pressures on delivery costs – however with rising demand prices could still be supported.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 65% of capacity on Friday, up from 64% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Vattenfalls’s Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to return on 15 September, with the Loviisa plant back online on 30 Sept.
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The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract could be lifted, with gains in the German power market owing to rising TTF and emissions supporting. The Nordic hydro balance is relatively unchanged on the day but has been revised up towards the end of September amid the expected return of the 890MW OL2 on 29 Sept - which could weigh on prices.

  • Nordic Base Power Q4 closed down 4.1% at 35.25 EUR/MWh on 12 Sept.
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 0.8% at 78.95 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.6% at 65.81 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1.7% at 35.785 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up from 24-25 September, with the highest revision on 27 September at +163GWh, with the balance ending at +1.7TWh on 27 Sept, while Sweden will end at +491GWh on the same day – up from +369GWh in the previous forecast.
  • But rainfall in the Nordics is expected to be below the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm for the entire 6–10-day ECMWF forecast, with rain anticipated to reach as low as 0mm for most days over 16-22 September.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in the quarter due to works until 18 October, the latest remit data show.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 9-17% load factors, or 0.476-0.871GW over 14-15 September– which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand. Wind is then expected to rise over 16-17 September at 14-13% load factors – likely keeping downward pressures on delivery costs – however with rising demand prices could still be supported.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 65% of capacity on Friday, up from 64% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Vattenfalls’s Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to return on 15 September, with the Loviisa plant back online on 30 Sept.