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POWER: NW European Power Demand to Rise 2.6% in 2025

POWER
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Power demand in NW Europe (Germany, France UK, Netherlands and Belgium) is expected to grow by 2.6% on the year, or 35TWh, to a total of 1,385TWh in 2025 according to the LSEG Power Research Front Year Outlook 2025. 

  • German industrial demand next year is forecast to recovery modestly by 4.4TWh.
  • Power demand in NW Europe is on track to rise by 1.8% on the year in 2024.
  • Looking at supply, NW European nuclear, coal and lignite capacity is forecast to be 10% lower this winter compared to last and is forecast to drop another 2% by January 2026.
  • German coal-fired capacity is expected at 9.1GW in January 2025, down from 15.6GW a year earlier. German lignite capacity is forecast to drop to 14.5GW in January 2025, down from 17.8GW in January 2024.
  • LSEG is currently neutral for the front-year prices in Germany and the UK, while seeing upside for German winter 2025/26 contracts.
  • LSEG is also bullish on French prices during summer 2025 due to a return to normal hydro conditions, which would also weigh on the German-French power spread next summer that is expected around €6/MWh, while current forward prices are seeing the spread at around €24/MWh. 
     
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Power demand in NW Europe (Germany, France UK, Netherlands and Belgium) is expected to grow by 2.6% on the year, or 35TWh, to a total of 1,385TWh in 2025 according to the LSEG Power Research Front Year Outlook 2025. 

  • German industrial demand next year is forecast to recovery modestly by 4.4TWh.
  • Power demand in NW Europe is on track to rise by 1.8% on the year in 2024.
  • Looking at supply, NW European nuclear, coal and lignite capacity is forecast to be 10% lower this winter compared to last and is forecast to drop another 2% by January 2026.
  • German coal-fired capacity is expected at 9.1GW in January 2025, down from 15.6GW a year earlier. German lignite capacity is forecast to drop to 14.5GW in January 2025, down from 17.8GW in January 2024.
  • LSEG is currently neutral for the front-year prices in Germany and the UK, while seeing upside for German winter 2025/26 contracts.
  • LSEG is also bullish on French prices during summer 2025 due to a return to normal hydro conditions, which would also weigh on the German-French power spread next summer that is expected around €6/MWh, while current forward prices are seeing the spread at around €24/MWh.