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POWER: Public Holiday Weighs On Germany Day Ahead, Higher Wind Drops France

POWER
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 The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both fell on the day amid a 6GW drop in German power demand anticipated for 3 Oct amid a public holiday, while much higher forecasts for wind in France kept gains in delivery costs subdued.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €72.66/MWh from €95.86/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €57.64/MWh from €90.43/MWh on the previous day.
  • German wind is expected at 13.58GW, or a 21% load factor on 3 Oct – firm on the day. Wind will be at around 7.6GW the next day – which could lift delivery costs.
  • German power demand has been slightly revised up by around 1GW on 3 Oct to be at 50.6GW, however, sharply down from 56GW anticipated today amid a public holiday anticipated tomorrow. Demand will then increase to 53.1GW on 4 Oct.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Berlin, suggests average temperature to be around 2C below the 30-year norm over 3-4 Oct and will reach as low as 9.4C over 5-6 Oct before climbing to as high as 16C on 11 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at around 6GW, or a 30% load factor on 3 Oct, up by about 2.5GW on the day, but wind is then anticipated to drop to a 17% load factor the next day – likely keeping losses limited on the day.
  • Demand is expected higher on the day at 47.8GW compared to 46.2GW on 2 Oct, with consumption then expected to increase to 48.71GW on 4 Oct.
  • And nuclear availability in France has decreased to 68% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, down from 70% on Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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 The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both fell on the day amid a 6GW drop in German power demand anticipated for 3 Oct amid a public holiday, while much higher forecasts for wind in France kept gains in delivery costs subdued.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €72.66/MWh from €95.86/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €57.64/MWh from €90.43/MWh on the previous day.
  • German wind is expected at 13.58GW, or a 21% load factor on 3 Oct – firm on the day. Wind will be at around 7.6GW the next day – which could lift delivery costs.
  • German power demand has been slightly revised up by around 1GW on 3 Oct to be at 50.6GW, however, sharply down from 56GW anticipated today amid a public holiday anticipated tomorrow. Demand will then increase to 53.1GW on 4 Oct.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Berlin, suggests average temperature to be around 2C below the 30-year norm over 3-4 Oct and will reach as low as 9.4C over 5-6 Oct before climbing to as high as 16C on 11 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at around 6GW, or a 30% load factor on 3 Oct, up by about 2.5GW on the day, but wind is then anticipated to drop to a 17% load factor the next day – likely keeping losses limited on the day.
  • Demand is expected higher on the day at 47.8GW compared to 46.2GW on 2 Oct, with consumption then expected to increase to 48.71GW on 4 Oct.
  • And nuclear availability in France has decreased to 68% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, down from 70% on Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.