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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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  • Last week, NBP member Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned that a rate hike in the coming months cannot be ruled out and that the central bank decision will depend on the November projection. The first hike is likely to be 'small' and the NBP would not have to stop QE first to embark in a tightening cycle.
  • At this stage, there are three policymakers (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) voting for an 'imminent' rate hike as they mentioned several times that inflation is now demand-driven in Poland and a gradual tightening could ease the inflationary pressures.
  • The other major risks for the PLN are the legal conflicts with EU, which could delay the EU aid plans (Poland is expecting 23.9bn EUR in grants and 12.1bn EUR in loans) and the FX loans settlements.
  • On Friday, economic data showed that wage growth in the corporate sector rose more than expected in August to 9.5% YoY (vs. 8.8% exp.), up from from 8.7% the previous month.
  • This morning, PPI inflation is expected to accelerate to 9.3% in August (from 8.2% the previous month). (9am London time).