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PPI Lowest Since Dec 2020 as Energy Prices Fall

SWEDEN
MNI (London)

SWEDEN MAY PPI -1.7% M/M; -2.1% Y/Y; APR +1.3% Y/Y

  • Swedish factory-gate inflation dipped into contraction at -2.1% y/y in May, decelerating 3.4pp from the April rate to the lowest reading since December 2020.
  • Prices declined by -1.7% m/m, falling for a fifth consecutive month.
  • Energy-related goods accounted for the bulk of downside pressure, alongside fuel, metals, heating and paper products.
  • Despite the substantial deceleration in PPI, Swedish CPI remains elevated. Sticky service prices have underpinned continued strength in CPIF ex. energy, which surprised to the upside in the May data, easing by only 0.2pp to +8.2% y/y.
  • Markets are looking for the Swedish Riskbank’s meeting on Thursday to deliver a 25bp hike to 3.75% in a further step to curb inflation and Krona weakness. An outside chance of a 50bp exists, yet precommitment to a September hike remains unlikely.

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