SOUTH KOREA: PPP To Discuss Yoon Resignation Feb/Mar, Election 2 Months Later

Reuters reporting that the governing conservative People Power Party (PPP) of President Yoon Suk-yeol is to discuss the possibility of the president's resignation in February or March of 2025, followed by a snap presidential election two months later. The comments come as the main opposition liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) seeks to pressure the PPP ahead of another impeachment vote due to take place ~1700 local time on Saturday 14 December. 

• The impeachment vote against Yoon held on 7 December fell short of the two-thirds majority to send it to the constitutional court. The PPP remains under significant public pressure to acquiesce to Yoon's ouster. Despite some apparent internal divisions, it appears at present the party is keen to avoid an immediate removal of the president.
• Earlier today, the National Assembly (in which the DPK holds a majority) approved the 2025 gov't budget, coming in at a total of KRW673.3T. This compares to the original gov't proposal of KRW677.4T. The inability to pass the original budget was seen as one of the major factors in prompting Yoon to impose martial law in early December that has sparked the ongoing political crisis.
• Political betting markets assign a 60% implied probability that Yoon is impeached before year end. This is down from a high of 89% before the 7 Dec vote, and up from a low of 21% shortly after. 

Chart 1. Implied Probability that President Yoon Is Impeached by National Assembly in 2024, %