Prabowo Increases Lead Ahead Of Wednesday’s Vote

Indonesian elections are held on Wednesday, which will also be a public holiday. The latest polls all show defence minister Prabowo not only ahead of the other two presidential candidates but likely to receive over 50% of the vote making a runoff in June unlikely. But with 53.5% the highest level of support, there is still a chance he won’t reach 50% given standard error bands around surveys. In this case the risk is that the other two candidates join forces and outpoll Prabowo in the June runoff.

• The LSI Denny JA poll taken between January 26 and February 6 covered responses following the fifth presidential debate. It showed support for Prabowo increasing 2.8pp from the January 16-26 survey to 53.5% with Anies still in second but falling 0.3pp to 21.7% and the incumbent PDI-P’s Ganjar down 0.5pp to 19.2%. So the ‘undecideds’ seem to be moving towards Prabowo.
• The polls taken since January 21’s fourth debate have Prabowo on an average 52.1%, Anies 22.7% and Ganjar 18.9%.
• There is concern that a Prabowo presidency would be a risk to Indonesia’s democracy given his past and the continuation of current President Joko Widodo’s dynasty with his son as VP, who received a constitutional dispensation from the age requirement. Jokowi remains very popular and this was seen as his endorsement of Prabowo who is not representing Jokowi’s PDI-P. This has caused tensions in his cabinet. According to The Economist, Anies and Ganjar have said their campaign events have been disrupted.
• As defence minister Prabowo proposed a Ukrainian peace plan in 2023 which was pro-Russian but also against Indonesia’s official policy on the conflict and he hadn’t consulted the government beforehand. This is driving fear that his presidency may be unpredictable, especially given many of his proposals are unrealistic or very expensive.