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Strength Amid Mixed Data, Slightly Dovish Fed Minutes

US TSYS SUMMARY

A heavy pre-Thanksgiving data slate proved mixed, and did nothing to reverse steady strength in Treasuries throughout the session. FOMC Minutes gave enough of a taste of potential action at forthcoming meetings (at least on guidance) to nudge the curve flatter ahead of the holiday.

  • Curve trading mixed: 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.1583%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 0.3829%, 10-Yr is down 1.6bps at 0.8635%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 1.596%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 4/32 at 138-12 (L: 138-04 / H: 138-15)
  • Tsys ticked higher after the 0830ET release of jobless claims (weak) and durable goods (strong), then again to session highs after personal income (mixed) and home sales (strong) data released at 1000ET.
  • FOMC November minutes were initially digested bullish for Tsys, with some discussion of asset purchases pointing toward outcome-based guidance on asset purchases favored by participants, with guidance coming "fairly soon" enough to help reverse earlier curve steepening though only slightly.
  • Overall though it was the steady weakness in equities (from Tue's jump), not the data, that Tsys most closely tracked. The next set of data is not until next week (starting with MNI Chicago PMI).
  • Thursday sees a bond market holiday, with Friday a half-day.

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