MNI BRIEF: BOJ To Raise Further, No Clues on Timing - Ueda

MNI BRIEF: BOJ's FY26 Inflation View Flat; Upside Risk To FY24, 25 Prices

BOJ SEES BIGGER UPSIDE RISKS TO PRICES IN FY2024, 2025

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY185.57 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1346 Weds; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: China July PMI Contracts For Third Straight Month

MNI China Liquidity Index™ – Conditions Ease In July

Uncertainty over French CPI M/M

MNI: FRANCE FLASH JULY HICP +2.6% Y/Y, +0.2% M/M

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Pre-Payrolls, USD Positioning Close to Multi-Year Highs

US DATA
  • The US is expected to have added 650k jobs (range 232 - 1,000k) in March, pressing the unemployment rate to post-pandemic lows of 6.0%. The whisper number, however, is far more positive and looks for 790k job gains, suggesting markets may be looking for a strong read this month.
  • Headed into the release, the USD index trades just below cycle highs of 93.437, the best level since early November. A break above here opens key resistance at 94.474, the 38.2% retracement of the 2020-21 downtrend.
  • Options markets are pricing an overnight swing of just over 40 pips in EUR/USD. Given the very slight bias towards USD weakness, a stronger number may strengthen the significance of noted support for the pair at 1.1695, 38.2% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan rally.
  • The MNI-weighted synthetic DXY 1m risk reversal has been trending higher over the past six months, hitting a post-pandemic high in early March and reflecting better underlying fundamentals. This is mirrored in CFTC positioning, with MNI's USD Positioning Indicator hitting the best levels in 18 months in late March.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.