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Precatorios Bill Implementation Delay, Eyes On Copom

BRAZIL
  • Commodities are rallying after China’s imports significantly beat estimates, signalling strength in the world’s second-biggest economy. While this may provide some relief for BRL, a minor delay on how to move forward with the Precatorios Bill may limit any pronounced BRL strength at the open.
  • A meeting between senate head Rodrigo Pacheco and party leaders ended on Monday without consensus on next steps needed to put into effect the so-called precatorios bill, which eases the country’s austerity rules to make room for President Bolsonaro’s new social program. Senators will continue debating the issue on Tuesday, according to an aide to Pacheco. (BBG)
  • ­Treasury will auction inflation-linked bonds due 2024, 2028 and 2040
  • Monthly inflation as measured by the IGP-DI index fell by 0.58% which was slightly more than the expected decline of 0.58%. As a reminder IGP-DI inflation is composed of wholesale prices (60% weight), consumer prices (30% weight) and construction (10% weight).
  • Domestic attention will turn to the Copom decision on Wednesday where all analysts believe the BCB will hike the Selic rate by 150bps to 9.25%. The likelihood of another acceleration in the hiking pace was dampened following poor Q3 GDP figures and the continued deterioration of growth expectations within the latest focus surveys.
  • However, with November IPCA inflation expected to rise to 10.9% on Friday and 2022 inflation expectations rising above the upper tolerance band, the statement should maintain a firm hawkish bias.
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