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Preference For CZK Rises As CNB Prepares For Tightening

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to gradually decrease with the 7D SMA of daily new cases dropping below 1,100 (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). As a result, The Czech Republic continues to ease pandemic restrictions as lower grades of primary schools resume full in-class learning and restaurants reopen outdoor seating areas.
  • Czech Cabinet approved 200bn CZK National Recovery Plan for drawing funds from the EU Recovery fund; investments are planned in greener models of transport, healthcare, high-speed internet networks and new pre-school care facilities.
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that Czech April industrial rose by 4.6% YoY, more than the 4.2% expected and up from 3.3% the previous year.
  • CNB prepares for a tightening cycle with the first hike priced in for August (+25bps), followed by another 25bps hike in November; some sell-side institutions actually expect three hikes in H2. Hence, the expected rise in the policy rate has increased demand for the CZK, which trades at multi-year highs against the major crosses.
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