Preliminary Data Expected To Show That Disinflation Has Stalled

Statistics Poland will release flash CPI readings for November at 09:00GMT/10:00CET, with consensus looking for a stabilisation in headline inflation rate at +6.6% Y/Y (per the Bloomberg survey). The sequential print is expected to come in at +0.7% M/M, accelerating from October's +0.3%.

• BOS Bank expect inflation to print around +6.6%-6.7% Y/Y, which should constrain market expectations of further monetary easing. However, they note that the focus in the medium term will be on the upcoming announcements of administrative decisions on the VAT rate applied to food items and on electricity prices in 2024.
• Citi Handlowy expect a downtick in headline inflation to +6.5% Y/Y from +6.6% prior, with post-election adjustment to fuel prices proving more moderate than expected due to a decline in diesel prices in international markets. They expect core inflation to ease to +7.5% Y/Y from +8.0%. Citi do not see inflation readings affecting the MPC's monetary policy stance.
• Credit Agricole have pencilled in headline inflation rate of +6.6% Y/Y, with lower food price growth and core inflation counterbalanced by higher energy and fuel price hikes.
• Goldman Sachs see inflation at +6.6% Y/Y, with a continued decline in inflation across most categories likely offset by a significant increase in fuel prices, which had been artificially suppressed ahead of the recent elections. They see inflation cooling considerably in the period ahead, after a temporary pause in November, resulting in the resumption of monetary easing in 1Q2024.
• mBank think that headline inflation will print at +6.5% Y/Y, with the sequential reading seen at +0.7% M/M. They expect food price inflation at +0.5% M/M, fuel prices at +7.2% M/M and energy at -0.2% M/M. Core inflation is expected at +7.7% Y/Y (+0.3% M/M).
  
• Millennium Bank see inflation at +6.6% Y/Y, which would mark the first pause in disinflation since March. They expect CPI to grow 0.7% M/M owing to a firm increase in fuel prices (+7.0% M/M). In their view, the data should support expectations of stable interest rates in the coming months.