Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Fed Funds/OIS implied terminal more than unwinds the post-announcement move higher for 2-3bps lower than just before the decision at 4.89-90%.
- The main move lower came on weaker pushback from Chair Powell against easing financial conditions (focused on sustained changes) before stabilising on ‘Fed discussing a couple more hikes to restrictive level’ and then pushing higher on ‘if economy performs as expected, don’t see 2023 rate cut’. Moves are further broadly supported by first signs that disinflation process has started.
- The market ramps up cut expectations despite continued push back, currently 4.41% for Fed Funds in Dec (-6bp on day), for 49bp of cuts vs 44bps prior.
- Near-term, Fed Funds imply a 20bp hike priced for the March decision.
FOMC terminal rate as of June meeting from OIS (yellow) and Fed Funds (white)Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok