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Pressured After Strong US Data

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 112-27, +0-00+, in line with late NY levels

  • Cash tsys finished dealing 3-8bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear flattened.
  • Tsys were pressured from session highs after stronger than forecast Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data which saw Fed rate hike expectations tick higher.
  • FOMC dated OIS now price a terminal rate of 5.35% in November, there are ~65bps of cuts priced for 2024.
  • The latest 5-Year auction tailed, weaker than average bid/cover ratio and indirect take up was observed.
  • Earlier in the session tsys had firmed as the S&P500 opened firmer and a rally in Canadian bonds spilled over.
  • CPI data from Australia provides the highlight in Asia-Pac today. Further out Fed Chair Powell is on a panel with ECB's Lagarde, BOJ's Ueda and BOE's Bailey.
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